Edge Sheet
Monday, Oct 26: the SPX game plan, locked before the bell and graded after the close.
Today’s calls
Only made when the data supports one. Each is scored after the close.
SPX closes between 7,537 and 7,710
±1.13% (86 pts) from yesterday's close, the 1-standard-deviation move priced by VIX and weighted for today’s catalysts. Closes land inside it about 68% of the time.
No direction lean today: days like this one closed above their open about as often as any other day.
Key levels
SPX points, highest first. Distance is from the prior close.
- +2σ expected move7,796+172
- 5-day high7,770+146
- 20-day average7,727+103
- +1σ expected move7,710+86
- 50-day average7,700+76
- Prior day high7,660+36
- Pivot R17,652+28
- Prior close7,624
- Prior day low7,612-12
- 5-day low7,612-12
- Pivot S17,604-20
- −1σ expected move7,537-87
- −2σ expected move7,451-173
Pro adds dealer gamma levels: call wall, put wall and gamma flip.
Market type
Expected move ±86.4 pts (1.13%), catalysts quiet
Options are pricing more movement than SPX has been delivering; trend is sideways.
- VIX
- 19.24
- 79th pct (1y)
- 20d realized vol
- 9.6%
- Vol premium
- +9.8
- VIX minus realized
- VIX curve
- flat
- 3M 20.12
- Trend
- Range
- 20 vs 50-day
See the odds behind every call
Pro shows the full ‘days like today’ tables (gap, VIX, streak, trend, weekday) and dealer gamma levels from the live SPY option chain.
Days like today
2,739 SPX sessions over 10.9 years. Base rate: 54% of days closed above their open. Measured from the open, so the gap itself doesn’t count.
On the calendar today
With how SPX has moved on these days before
No major scheduled catalysts. Quiet calendars tend to mean smaller ranges.
Full Catalyst Radar →Stocks in play
Overnight filings, earnings reactions and the biggest movers
- VZReports earnings before today’s openearnings
Scorecard
Every call, graded in public
The first sheets are being graded. The hit rate for every kind of call shows up here after the first close.